🧪 Prototype: inflection points × prediction markets (/signals)

src/app/signals/page.tsx

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+import type { Metadata } from 'next'
+import Breadcrumb from '@/components/Breadcrumb'
+import {
+  predictionMarketMeta,
+  predictionMarketMappings,
+  fetchPolymarketOdds,
+  type MarketMatch,
+} from '@/lib/predictionMarkets'
+
+export const metadata: Metadata = {
+  title: 'Signals — Inflection points, priced by the crowd',
+  description: predictionMarketMeta.subtitle,
+}
+
+// Revalidate hourly (odds are cached per-slug in the fetch helper too).
+export const revalidate = 3600
+
+const matchLabel: Record<MarketMatch, string> = {
+  direct: 'Direct market',
+  proxy: 'Proxy market',
+  gap: 'No market yet',
+}
+
+const matchStyle: Record<MarketMatch, string> = {
+  direct: 'bg-emerald-50 text-emerald-700 border-emerald-200',
+  proxy: 'bg-amber-50 text-amber-700 border-amber-200',
+  gap: 'bg-gray-100 text-gray-500 border-gray-200',
+}
+
+export default async function SignalsPage() {
+  // Fetch live odds per mapping (passing the mapping's question as a hint so
+  // multi-threshold events resolve to the right line).
+  const odds = await Promise.all(
+    predictionMarketMappings.map((m) =>
+      m.market.slug ? fetchPolymarketOdds(m.market.slug, m.market.question) : Promise.resolve(null),
+    ),
+  )
+
+  return (
+    <div className="max-w-6xl mx-auto px-6 pt-8 pb-16">
+      <Breadcrumb items={[{ label: 'Signals' }]} />
+
+      <h1 className="mt-6 text-lg md:text-[32px] leading-tight font-semibold">
+        {predictionMarketMeta.title}
+      </h1>
+      <p className="mt-4 text-gray-600 leading-relaxed max-w-3xl">
+        {predictionMarketMeta.subtitle}
+      </p>
+
+      <div className="mt-8 grid gap-4 md:grid-cols-2">
+        {predictionMarketMappings.map((m, i) => {
+          const o = odds[i]
+          const pct = o && o.yesPrice != null ? Math.round(o.yesPrice * 100) : null
+          return (
+            <div
+              key={i}
+              className="rounded-xl border border-gray-200 bg-white p-5 flex flex-col gap-3"
+            >
+              <div className="flex items-center justify-between gap-3">
+                <span className="text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">
+                  {m.area}
+                </span>
+                <span
+                  className={`text-[11px] px-2 py-0.5 rounded-full border ${matchStyle[m.match]}`}
+                >
+                  {matchLabel[m.match]}
+                </span>
+              </div>
+
+              <div className="font-semibold text-gray-900">{m.opportunitySpace}</div>
+              <p className="text-sm text-gray-600 leading-relaxed">{m.inflectionPoint}</p>
+
+              <div className="mt-auto pt-3 border-t border-gray-100">
+                {m.match === 'gap' ? (
+                  <p className="text-sm text-gray-500 italic">{m.market.question}</p>
+                ) : (
+                  <div className="flex items-center justify-between gap-4">
+                    <div className="min-w-0">
+                      <div className="text-xs text-gray-400">{m.market.platform}</div>
+                      <a
+                        href={m.market.url}
+                        target="_blank"
+                        rel="noopener noreferrer"
+                        className="text-sm text-gray-800 hover:underline block truncate"
+                        title={m.market.question}
+                      >
+                        {m.market.question}
+                      </a>
+                    </div>
+                    <div className="text-right shrink-0">
+                      <div className="text-2xl font-semibold tabular-nums text-gray-900">
+                        {pct != null ? `${pct}%` : '—'}
+                      </div>
+                      <div className="text-[11px] text-gray-400">crowd&nbsp;yes</div>
+                    </div>
+                  </div>
+                )}
+                {m.market.note && (
+                  <p className="mt-2 text-[12px] text-gray-400 leading-snug">
+                    {m.market.note}
+                  </p>
+                )}
+              </div>
+            </div>
+          )
+        })}
+      </div>
+
+      <p className="mt-8 text-xs text-gray-400 max-w-3xl leading-relaxed">
+        {predictionMarketMeta.disclaimer}
+      </p>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

src/data/prediction-markets.json

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+{
+  "meta": {
+    "title": "Inflection points, priced by the crowd",
+    "subtitle": "An experiment: each PL R&D inflection point mapped to the closest live prediction market on Polymarket / Kalshi. Where a market exists, the crowd's probability is a running scoreboard for our bets. Where none exists, the gap is itself a signal of how early or contrarian the bet is.",
+    "disclaimer": "Prototype for discussion. Odds are fetched live from public prediction-market APIs and are proxies, not exact restatements of our inflection points. Not investment advice; nothing here endorses gambling."
+  },
+  "mappings": [
+    {
+      "area": "AI & Robotics",
+      "areaSlug": "ai-robotics",
+      "opportunitySpace": "Open Compute Networks",
+      "inflectionPoint": "A decentralized / open compute network trains a model competitive with the hyperscalers' frontier.",
+      "match": "proxy",
+      "market": {
+        "platform": "Polymarket",
+        "question": "Will an open-weights (Chinese) model be the best AI model by Dec 31?",
+        "slug": "will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31",
+        "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31",
+        "note": "Open-weights momentum is the best available proxy for open/distributed compute reaching the frontier."
+      }
+    },
+    {
+      "area": "AI & Robotics",
+      "areaSlug": "ai-robotics",
+      "opportunitySpace": "Embodied AI & Robotics Data Networks",
+      "inflectionPoint": "Robotics datasets and embodied models reach the behavioral repertoire needed for real-world deployment.",
+      "match": "proxy",
+      "market": {
+        "platform": "Polymarket",
+        "question": "Will Tesla release a consumer Optimus humanoid by Dec 31, 2026?",
+        "slug": "will-tesla-release-optimus-by-june-30-2026",
+        "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-tesla-release-optimus-by-june-30-2026",
+        "note": "Commercial humanoid release is a visible downstream marker of embodied-AI data maturity. Figure F.03 reliability markets are a second proxy."
+      }
+    },
+    {
+      "area": "AI & Robotics",
+      "areaSlug": "ai-robotics",
+      "opportunitySpace": "Agent Coordination & Agent-Native Economic Infrastructure",
+      "inflectionPoint": "Autonomous agents coordinate and transact across organizations without human intermediation.",
+      "match": "gap",
+      "market": {
+        "platform": "—",
+        "question": "No direct market yet — agents already trade ON Polymarket, but none prices agent-to-agent economies.",
+        "slug": "",
+        "url": "",
+        "note": "A genuine white space. Could be worth proposing/seeding such a market."
+      }
+    },
+    {
+      "area": "Digital Human Rights",
+      "areaSlug": "digital-human-rights",
+      "opportunitySpace": "Portable Identity, Credentials & Trust",
+      "inflectionPoint": "A 100M+ service identifies users without state/platform KYC via self-sovereign identity.",
+      "match": "direct",
+      "market": {
+        "platform": "Polymarket",
+        "question": "Over 30M humans verified on World Network by Dec 31?",
+        "slug": "over-30m-humans-verified-on-world-network-by-december-31",
+        "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/over-30m-humans-verified-on-world-network-by-december-31",
+        "note": "Proof-of-human adoption at scale is the clearest live analogue to the portable-identity inflection."
+      }
+    },
+    {
+      "area": "Digital Human Rights",
+      "areaSlug": "digital-human-rights",
+      "opportunitySpace": "Verifiable Public Knowledge & Provenance",
+      "inflectionPoint": "Frontier AI + major institutions adopt cryptographic content provenance as a baseline.",
+      "match": "gap",
+      "market": {
+        "platform": "—",
+        "question": "No clean market yet (EU AI Act Art. 50 enforcement, Aug 2026, is a candidate to track).",
+        "slug": "",
+        "url": "",
+        "note": "C2PA / SynthID adoption is measurable but not yet a liquid market — another white space."
+      }
+    },
+    {
+      "area": "Neuro",
+      "areaSlug": "neurotech",
+      "opportunitySpace": "Neural Augmentation (BCI)",
+      "inflectionPoint": "An FDA-cleared BCI opens a third-party app layer, normalizing elective implantation.",
+      "match": "proxy",
+      "market": {
+        "platform": "Polymarket",
+        "question": "Will Neuralink's valuation hit $75B by Dec 31?",
+        "slug": "will-neuralinks-valuation-hit-by-december-31",
+        "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-neuralinks-valuation-hit-by-december-31",
+        "note": "Valuation / FDA-milestone markets track BCI momentum; a dedicated FDA-clearance market would be the direct measure."
+      }
+    },
+    {
+      "area": "Economies & Governance",
+      "areaSlug": "economies-governance",
+      "opportunitySpace": "Sovereign Digital Public Infrastructure",
+      "inflectionPoint": "A nation-state runs core systems (identity, payments, registries) on crypto rails.",
+      "match": "proxy",
+      "market": {
+        "platform": "Polymarket",
+        "question": "Over 30M humans verified on World Network by Dec 31?",
+        "slug": "over-30m-humans-verified-on-world-network-by-december-31",
+        "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/over-30m-humans-verified-on-world-network-by-december-31",
+        "note": "World becoming a mandated digital-identity layer is one of our own examples; shares the World market as a proxy."
+      }
+    },
+    {
+      "area": "Economies & Governance",
+      "areaSlug": "economies-governance",
+      "opportunitySpace": "Crypto-Native Governance & Decentralized Climate Finance",
+      "inflectionPoint": "A city/jurisdiction adopts crypto-native governance; a billion-dollar DePIN climate business emerges.",
+      "match": "gap",
+      "market": {
+        "platform": "—",
+        "question": "No liquid market yet for network-state governance adoption or DePIN climate scale.",
+        "slug": "",
+        "url": "",
+        "note": "Long-horizon, illiquid themes — the absence of a market underlines how contrarian these bets are."
+      }
+    }
+  ]
+}

src/lib/predictionMarkets.ts

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+import mappingData from '@/data/prediction-markets.json'
+
+export type MarketMatch = 'direct' | 'proxy' | 'gap'
+
+export type MarketMapping = {
+  area: string
+  areaSlug: string
+  opportunitySpace: string
+  inflectionPoint: string
+  match: MarketMatch
+  market: {
+    platform: string
+    question: string
+    slug: string
+    url: string
+    note: string
+  }
+}
+
+export type LiveOdds = {
+  yesPrice: number | null // 0..1
+  question: string | null
+  fetchedAt: string
+}
+
+export const predictionMarketMeta = (mappingData as { meta: { title: string; subtitle: string; disclaimer: string } }).meta
+export const predictionMarketMappings = (mappingData as { mappings: MarketMapping[] }).mappings
+
+const GAMMA = 'https://gamma-api.polymarket.com'
+
+/**
+ * Fetch the current "Yes" probability for a Polymarket event by slug.
+ * Uses the public Gamma API (no auth). Returns the highest-priced Yes outcome
+ * across the event's markets as a simple headline number for the prototype.
+ */
+export async function fetchPolymarketOdds(slug: string, hint?: string): Promise<LiveOdds> {
+  const empty: LiveOdds = { yesPrice: null, question: null, fetchedAt: new Date().toISOString() }
+  if (!slug) return empty
+  try {
+    const res = await fetch(`${GAMMA}/events?slug=${encodeURIComponent(slug)}`, {
+      // Revalidate hourly so the page stays fresh without hammering the API.
+      next: { revalidate: 3600 },
+    })
+    if (!res.ok) return empty
+    const events = (await res.json()) as Array<{
+      title?: string
+      markets?: Array<{ question?: string; outcomes?: string; outcomePrices?: string }>
+    }>
+    const event = events?.[0]
+    if (!event?.markets?.length) return empty
+
+    // Parse every sub-market's Yes price once.
+    const parsed = event.markets
+      .map((m) => {
+        const outcomes = safeParse(m.outcomes)
+        const prices = safeParse(m.outcomePrices)
+        if (!outcomes || !prices) return null
+        const yesIdx = outcomes.findIndex((o) => o.toLowerCase() === 'yes')
+        if (yesIdx === -1) return null
+        const yes = Number(prices[yesIdx])
+        if (Number.isNaN(yes)) return null
+        return { yes, question: m.question || event.title || '' }
+      })
+      .filter((x): x is { yes: number; question: string } => x != null)
+    if (!parsed.length) return empty
+
+    // If the mapping gives a hint (e.g. a "$75B" threshold), prefer the
+    // sub-market whose question shares a distinctive token with it. This keeps
+    // multi-threshold events (Neuralink valuation, etc.) on the right line
+    // instead of defaulting to the near-certain lowest threshold.
+    const token = hint ? distinctiveToken(hint) : null
+    const pick =
+      (token && parsed.find((m) => m.question.toLowerCase().includes(token))) ||
+      parsed[0]
+    return { yesPrice: pick.yes, question: pick.question, fetchedAt: new Date().toISOString() }
+  } catch {
+    return empty
+  }
+}
+
+// Pull a distinctive token (a $-amount or number) from the mapping question
+// to disambiguate multi-threshold events.
+function distinctiveToken(s: string): string | null {
+  const money = s.match(/\$[0-9]+(?:\.[0-9]+)?[bmk]?/i)
+  if (money) return money[0].toLowerCase()
+  const num = s.match(/[0-9]+m\b|[0-9]{2,}/i)
+  return num ? num[0].toLowerCase() : null
+}
+
+function safeParse(s?: string): string[] | null {
+  if (!s) return null
+  try {
+    const v = JSON.parse(s)
+    return Array.isArray(v) ? v.map(String) : null
+  } catch {
+    return null
+  }
+}