Impact page: drop the progress bar, soften attribution, ship as an unlisted preview (stacks on #98)

public/robots.txt

@@ -5,5 +5,8 @@ Disallow: /admin
 Disallow: /edit
 Disallow: /write
 Disallow: /api/
+# Unlisted drafts — shared by link only, not for indexing.
+Disallow: /impact
+Disallow: /impact-preview
 
 Sitemap: https://www.plrd.org/sitemap.xml

src/app/globals.css

@@ -100,7 +100,6 @@ body {
 :root {
   --impact-field: #131316;        /* the field axis (neutral ink) */
   --impact-field-ink: #ffffff;    /* text on a field-accent fill */
-  --impact-field-track: #e5e7eb;  /* empty progress segment */
   --impact-hand: #1982f4;         /* our-hand axis (blue) */
 }
 
@@ -134,7 +133,6 @@ html.dark {
      to light so white badge text is swapped for dark ink. */
   --impact-field: #e9e9ee;
   --impact-field-ink: #15171c;
-  --impact-field-track: #3a3f4b;
   --impact-hand: #3b96f6;
 }
 

src/app/impact-preview/[key]/page.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+import type { Metadata } from 'next'
+import { notFound } from 'next/navigation'
+import ImpactExperience from '@/components/ImpactExperience'
+
+// ── Hidden preview of the Impact experience ───────────────────────────────────
+// Shared only by link. The path segment IS the secret: `dynamicParams = false`
+// plus a single `generateStaticParams` entry means every URL except the exact
+// key 404s. The page is marked noindex/nofollow, is not in the nav, and is not
+// in the sitemap. Rotate the key below to invalidate an old link.
+const PREVIEW_KEY = '024dbf9194f85c80c584f572d22d5aa7'
+
+export const revalidate = 60
+export const dynamicParams = false
+
+export function generateStaticParams() {
+  return [{ key: PREVIEW_KEY }]
+}
+
+export const metadata: Metadata = {
+  title: 'Impact (preview)',
+  robots: {
+    index: false,
+    follow: false,
+    googleBot: { index: false, follow: false },
+  },
+}
+
+export default async function ImpactPreviewPage({
+  params,
+}: {
+  params: Promise<{ key: string }>
+}) {
+  const { key } = await params
+  if (key !== PREVIEW_KEY) notFound()
+  return <ImpactExperience preview />
+}

src/app/impact/page.tsx

@@ -1,144 +1,27 @@
 import type { Metadata } from 'next'
-import Breadcrumb from '@/components/Breadcrumb'
-import ImpactDashboardV2, { type LiveMetric, type LiveOutputs } from '@/components/ImpactDashboardV2'
-import MeasuringQuestionsV2 from '@/components/MeasuringQuestionsV2'
-import { fetchSimocracyStats } from '@/lib/simocracy'
-import { fetchGainforestStats } from '@/lib/gainforest'
-import { fetchGlowStats } from '@/lib/glow'
-import { resolveAllSignals } from '@/lib/market-signals'
-import { FOCUS_AREAS, type FocusAreaKey } from '@/lib/inflection-points'
-import { instrumentsForArea, withOpenAlex, type InstrumentRecord } from '@/lib/velocity-instruments'
-import { loadAllOpenAlex } from '@/lib/velocity-openalex'
+import ImpactExperience from '@/components/ImpactExperience'
 
 // The impact page reads field velocity: the interventions we run, the five
 // instruments we read a field's rate of change with, and the inflection points
 // we track, each with its live signal.
+//
+// NOTE: this is an unlisted draft. It is not in the nav and not in the sitemap,
+// and it is marked noindex/nofollow so search engines skip it. The shareable
+// entry point is the cryptic /impact-preview/<key>/ route; this canonical path
+// is kept working but deliberately undiscoverable until the work is signed off.
 export const revalidate = 60
 
-async function fetchLiveOutputs(): Promise<LiveOutputs> {
-  const compact = (n: number) =>
-    new Intl.NumberFormat('en-US', { notation: 'compact', maximumFractionDigits: 1 }).format(n)
-  const out: LiveOutputs = {}
-
-  const [sim, gf, glow] = await Promise.allSettled([
-    fetchSimocracyStats(),
-    fetchGainforestStats(),
-    fetchGlowStats(),
-  ])
-
-  // A binding decision at scale — Simocracy (a PL-supported deliberation mechanism).
-  if (sim.status === 'fulfilled' && !sim.value.degraded) {
-    const t = sim.value.totals
-    const metrics: LiveMetric[] = [
-      { n: t.uniqueHumans, label: 'participants' },
-      { n: t.totalSims, label: 'simulations' },
-      { n: t.totalGatherings, label: 'gatherings' },
-    ]
-      .filter((m) => m.n > 0)
-      .map((m) => ({ value: compact(m.n), label: m.label }))
-    if (metrics.length) out['A binding decision at scale'] = metrics
-  }
-
-  // Capital that pays on verified outcomes — GainForest + Glow (PL-backed MRV teams).
-  const verified: LiveMetric[] = []
-  if (gf.status === 'fulfilled' && !gf.value.degraded) {
-    const g = gf.value
-    if (g.observations > 0) verified.push({ value: compact(g.observations), label: 'species observations' })
-    if (g.certifiedOrgs > 0) verified.push({ value: compact(g.certifiedOrgs), label: 'certified orgs' })
-  }
-  if (glow.status === 'fulfilled' && !glow.value.degraded) {
-    const gl = glow.value
-    if (gl.activeFarms > 0) verified.push({ value: compact(gl.activeFarms), label: 'active solar farms' })
-    if (gl.carbon > 0) verified.push({ value: compact(gl.carbon), label: 'tCO₂ / wk' })
-  }
-  if (verified.length) out['Capital that pays on verified outcomes'] = verified
-
-  return out
-}
-
 export const metadata: Metadata = {
   title: 'Impact',
   description:
     'How we judge PL R&D: whether the fields we back are speeding up. We name the interventions we run, then read field velocity through five instruments and the inflection points we track.',
+  robots: {
+    index: false,
+    follow: false,
+    googleBot: { index: false, follow: false },
+  },
 }
 
 export default async function ImpactPage() {
-  const [liveOutputs, marketSignals] = await Promise.all([fetchLiveOutputs(), resolveAllSignals()])
-
-  // Merge any OpenAlex CSV readings (idea vintage + talent entry) into the static
-  // instrument records, per focus area. Parsed at build time; absent CSVs are a
-  // no-op, leaving the documented `unwired` records in place.
-  const openAlex = loadAllOpenAlex()
-  const recordsByArea = Object.fromEntries(
-    FOCUS_AREAS.map((fa) => [fa.key, withOpenAlex(instrumentsForArea(fa.key), openAlex[fa.key])]),
-  ) as Partial<Record<FocusAreaKey, InstrumentRecord[]>>
-
-  // Example idea-vintage series per field, for the methodology modal that explains
-  // the instrument (shown as small multiples).
-  const ideaVintageExamples = FOCUS_AREAS.map((fa) => {
-    const rec = (recordsByArea[fa.key] ?? []).find(
-      (r) => r.instrument === 'idea_vintage' && r.state === 'reading' && r.series && r.series.length > 1,
-    )
-    return rec ? { label: fa.label, series: rec.series!, scale: rec.seriesScale ?? 'linear' } : null
-  }).filter((x): x is { label: string; series: NonNullable<InstrumentRecord['series']>; scale: 'linear' | 'log' } => !!x)
-  return (
-    <div>
-      {/* Hero */}
-      <div className="max-w-6xl mx-auto px-6 pt-8">
-        <Breadcrumb items={[{ label: 'Impact' }]} />
-        <div className="pt-8 pb-10">
-          <h1 className="text-2xl lg:text-[44px] font-semibold leading-[1.1] tracking-tight mb-5 max-w-3xl">
-            PL R&amp;D&rsquo;s impact on field velocity
-          </h1>
-          <p className="text-lg text-gray-600 leading-relaxed max-w-none">
-            We back fields we think are ready to move, then check whether they do.{' '}
-            <strong className="font-semibold text-black">Field velocity</strong> is that rate of change:
-            how fast talent enters, capital forms, tool costs fall, and output ships.{' '}
-            <strong className="font-semibold text-black">Inflection points</strong> are one of the markers
-            we read &mdash; dated, falsifiable shifts an accelerating field should produce.
-          </p>
-          <p className="mt-4 text-lg text-gray-600 leading-relaxed max-w-none">
-            We measure velocity the same way we do the work: as a research program. Whether field
-            acceleration works is itself the open question, tested across all four focus areas.
-          </p>
-          <a
-            href="#methodology"
-            className="mt-6 inline-flex items-center gap-2 text-gray-600 hover:text-gray-900 transition-colors font-medium text-[15px]"
-          >
-            Learn more about our methodology
-            <svg className="w-4 h-4" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" viewBox="0 0 24 24">
-              <path strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round" strokeWidth={2} d="M19 9l-7 7-7-7" />
-            </svg>
-          </a>
-        </div>
-      </div>
-
-      {/* Field velocity — grey full-bleed section to set it apart from the rest of the site */}
-      <section className="border-y border-gray-200 bg-gray-100">
-        <div className="max-w-6xl mx-auto px-6 py-14 lg:py-16">
-          <h2 className="text-xl lg:text-2xl font-semibold tracking-tight mb-2">Field velocity</h2>
-          <p className="text-base text-gray-600 leading-relaxed max-w-3xl mb-8">
-            Pick a focus area. The summary above reads that field&rsquo;s velocity across the instruments
-            that apply to it; the inflection points below are the specific markers we track, each with its
-            live signal.
-          </p>
-          <ImpactDashboardV2
-            liveOutputs={liveOutputs}
-            marketSignals={marketSignals}
-            recordsByArea={recordsByArea}
-          />
-        </div>
-      </section>
-
-      {/* Methodology */}
-      <div id="methodology" className="max-w-6xl mx-auto px-6 py-14 lg:py-16 scroll-mt-24">
-        <h2 className="text-xl lg:text-2xl font-semibold tracking-tight mb-2">Our methodology</h2>
-        <p className="text-base text-gray-600 leading-relaxed max-w-3xl mb-10">
-          The method is the meta-research design of how we do field acceleration. We name the
-          interventions we run, then read field velocity as the result. Same design, every focus area.
-        </p>
-        <MeasuringQuestionsV2 ideaVintageExamples={ideaVintageExamples} />
-      </div>
-    </div>
-  )
+  return <ImpactExperience />
 }

src/components/ImpactDashboardV2.tsx

@@ -10,10 +10,8 @@ import { useEffect, useMemo, useState } from 'react'
 import {
   ROLE_META,
   PL_ROLE_ORDER,
-  FIELD_STAGES,
   HOW_TO_READ,
   TEAM_LINKS,
-  stageIndexForStatus,
   resolutionFor,
   inflectionLabel,
   isConcerningMarker,
@@ -25,7 +23,6 @@ import {
   INFLECTION_POINTS,
   FIELD_COLOR,
   FIELD_INK,
-  FIELD_TRACK,
   HAND_COLOR,
   LIVE_COLOR,
   type FocusAreaKey,
@@ -251,6 +248,11 @@ function shortDate(s?: string): string | undefined {
   return s ? s.slice(0, 10) : s
 }
 
+/** Review status line. Reads "not yet reviewed" until a review date lands. */
+function reviewedLabel(asOf?: string): string {
+  return asOf ? `reviewed ${asOf}` : 'not yet reviewed'
+}
+
 function marketReadout(s: MarketSignal): string {
   return s.readout ?? (s.prob != null ? `${Math.round(s.prob * 100)}%` : '—')
 }
@@ -665,30 +667,6 @@ function MissesLedger({ points }: { points: InflectionPoint[] }) {
   )
 }
 
-function FieldMeter({ status }: { status: InflectionPoint['status'] }) {
-  const reached = stageIndexForStatus(status)
-  return (
-    <div>
-      <div className="flex gap-1">
-        {FIELD_STAGES.map((_, i) => (
-          <span
-            key={i}
-            className="h-1.5 flex-1 rounded-full"
-            style={{ backgroundColor: i <= reached ? FIELD_COLOR : FIELD_TRACK }}
-          />
-        ))}
-      </div>
-      <div className="mt-1.5 flex justify-between text-[11px] text-gray-400">
-        {FIELD_STAGES.map((s, i) => (
-          <span key={s} className={i === reached ? 'font-medium text-gray-600' : ''}>
-            {s}
-          </span>
-        ))}
-      </div>
-    </div>
-  )
-}
-
 function RoleChips({ roles }: { roles: PLRole[] }) {
   const ordered = PL_ROLE_ORDER.filter((r) => roles.includes(r))
   return (
@@ -729,7 +707,6 @@ function InflectionCard({
   onOpen: () => void
 }) {
   const fa = FOCUS_AREAS.find((f) => f.key === point.area)!
-  const stageLabel = FIELD_STAGES[stageIndexForStatus(point.status)]
   const hasLiveSignal = !!(
     point.liveEvidence?.length ||
     (metrics && metrics.length) ||
@@ -767,21 +744,12 @@ function InflectionCard({
       <div className="mb-5 flex flex-col gap-1.5">
         <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
           <ResolutionChip point={point} />
-          <span className="text-[11px] text-gray-400">reviewed {resolution.asOf ?? 'not yet'}</span>
+          <span className="text-[11px] text-gray-400">{reviewedLabel(resolution.asOf)}</span>
         </div>
         <ResolutionMeta point={point} />
       </div>
 
       <div className="mt-auto border-t border-gray-100 pt-4">
-        <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
-          <span className="text-[11px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wide" style={{ color: FIELD_COLOR }}>
-            The field
-          </span>
-          <span className="ml-auto text-[11px] font-medium" style={{ color: FIELD_COLOR }}>{stageLabel}</span>
-        </div>
-      </div>
-
-      <div className="mt-4 border-t border-gray-100 pt-4">
         <div className="mb-2 flex items-center gap-2">
           <span className="text-[11px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wide" style={{ color: HAND_COLOR }}>
             Our hand
@@ -917,18 +885,11 @@ function InflectionModal({
                 <p className="text-sm leading-relaxed text-gray-600">{point.cascade}</p>
               </div>
             </div>
-            <div className="rounded-xl border border-gray-200 bg-white p-5">
-              <div className="mb-2 text-xs font-semibold uppercase tracking-wide" style={{ color: FIELD_COLOR }}>
-                Progress against inflection point
-              </div>
-              <FieldMeter status={point.status} />
-            </div>
-
             {/* Resolution: outcome × mattered (never inferred from one another). */}
-            <div className="mt-4 rounded-xl border border-gray-200 bg-white p-5">
+            <div className="rounded-xl border border-gray-200 bg-white p-5">
               <div className="mb-3 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
                 <ResolutionChip point={point} />
-                <span className="text-[11px] text-gray-400">reviewed {resolutionFor(point).asOf ?? 'not yet'}</span>
+                <span className="text-[11px] text-gray-400">{reviewedLabel(resolutionFor(point).asOf)}</span>
               </div>
               <ResolutionMeta point={point} stacked />
               {resolutionFor(point).matteredEvidence && (