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Meta-eval: (6/7) Measure held-out Elo error against annotation budget - #106

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ErlisLushtaku wants to merge 3 commits into
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Meta-eval: (6/7) Measure held-out Elo error against annotation budget#106
ErlisLushtaku wants to merge 3 commits into
meta-eval/05-prompt-presetsfrom
meta-eval/06-elo-gap

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@ErlisLushtaku ErlisLushtaku commented Aug 15, 2026

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Packaged meta-eval split from closed PR #76. Meta-eval does not use the unified do_inference cache, and the cache stack (#94-#100) does not wire it up either: caching will be added to meta-eval once those PRs are merged.

Held-out Elo MAE compares a hybrid Bradley-Terry fit (other models' human battles plus K LLM labels for the held-out model) to full-human BT at each --meta_eval.elo_gap_battles budget. Ties are dropped after sampling so the budget stays the number of purchased annotations.

This is stacked on #105.

Hybrid Bradley-Terry (other models' human battles plus K LLM labels
for the held-out model) is compared to full-human BT at each
--meta_eval.elo_gap_battles budget. Ties are dropped after sampling
so the budget stays the number of purchased annotations. Ranking and
Elo-gap fits still use one forward-order row per battle.
@ErlisLushtaku ErlisLushtaku changed the title WIP: (6/7) Measure held-out Elo error against annotation budget Meta-eval: (6/7) Measure held-out Elo error against annotation budget Aug 17, 2026
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ErlisLushtaku marked this pull request as ready for review August 17, 2026 09:21
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