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feat(#569): implement Predictive Account Activity Modeling#710

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feat(#569): implement Predictive Account Activity Modeling#710
Meme11030 wants to merge 1 commit into
Nanle-code:masterfrom
Meme11030:feature/569-predictive-account-activity-modeling

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@Meme11030

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  • Add accountActivityModeling.ts with behavioral prediction engine:
    • Weighted exponential smoothing with recencyBias for trend tracking
    • Day-of-week + hour-of-day seasonality multipliers
    • Logistic (sigmoid) active-probability estimation per period
    • Calendar event integration with activity multiplier support
  • Pattern detection: daily (hour-of-day), weekly (day-of-week), monthly (day-of-month) recurring activity patterns
  • 24×7 activity heatmap generation (hour × day-of-week grid)
  • Proactive notification system: high activity, inactivity, pattern change, and calendar event notifications
  • Behavior change detection: adapts model when recent activity deviates >30% from historical baseline
  • Leave-one-out accuracy estimation (20% holdout)
  • Utility to bucket Stellar operation records into ActivityRecords
  • API routes: POST /analyze, /predict, /patterns, /heatmap, /notifications, /accuracy, /convert (all under /api/v1/activity)
  • 43 unit tests, all passing

Acceptance criteria met:

  • Activity predictions with confidence intervals per horizon (day/week/month)
  • Recurring pattern identification (daily, weekly, monthly)
  • Calendar event integration for scheduled activity
  • Proactive notification system
  • Model adapts to behavior changes
    closes Predictive Account Activity Modeling #569

- Add accountActivityModeling.ts with behavioral prediction engine:
  - Weighted exponential smoothing with recencyBias for trend tracking
  - Day-of-week + hour-of-day seasonality multipliers
  - Logistic (sigmoid) active-probability estimation per period
  - Calendar event integration with activity multiplier support
- Pattern detection: daily (hour-of-day), weekly (day-of-week),
  monthly (day-of-month) recurring activity patterns
- 24×7 activity heatmap generation (hour × day-of-week grid)
- Proactive notification system: high activity, inactivity,
  pattern change, and calendar event notifications
- Behavior change detection: adapts model when recent activity
  deviates >30% from historical baseline
- Leave-one-out accuracy estimation (20% holdout)
- Utility to bucket Stellar operation records into ActivityRecords
- API routes: POST /analyze, /predict, /patterns, /heatmap,
  /notifications, /accuracy, /convert (all under /api/v1/activity)
- 43 unit tests, all passing

Acceptance criteria met:
- Activity predictions with confidence intervals per horizon (day/week/month)
- Recurring pattern identification (daily, weekly, monthly)
- Calendar event integration for scheduled activity
- Proactive notification system
- Model adapts to behavior changes
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@Meme11030 is attempting to deploy a commit to the nanle-code's projects Team on Vercel.

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@drips-wave

drips-wave Bot commented Jul 25, 2026

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@Meme11030 Great news! 🎉 Based on an automated assessment of this PR, the linked Wave issue(s) no longer count against your application limits.

You can now already apply to more issues while waiting for a review of this PR. Keep up the great work! 🚀

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Predictive Account Activity Modeling

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