diff --git a/competitions/trace_the_ace/V139_PRECOMMIT.md b/competitions/trace_the_ace/V139_PRECOMMIT.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..b9fb6ded --- /dev/null +++ b/competitions/trace_the_ace/V139_PRECOMMIT.md @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +# V139 precommit — Component-specific applicability + +## Controller continuation +V138 closed the generic two-literal *whole-V135* gating language under its frozen admission rule, but all four meta-folds independently selected the same interaction family: `support_log <= q80 AND prior_disp > q20`, with ~64% coverage. The selector improved overall LL slightly versus full V135 and beat the equal-capacity shuffled selector, but only 2/4 folds beat V135. + +## Residual +The joint geometry is stable, but applying it to the entire V135 operator may discard the independently useful V75+RELATED composition outside the region. + +## Diagnosis +Primary: component applicability. Secondary: composition representation. This is not a new generic router search. + +## Strongest rival +The V138 interaction is incidental selection structure; component-specific application will not improve full V135 and any gain will be matched by a random same-coverage prior mask. + +## K(rho) +An admissible intervention must: +1. retain exact V97 fallback for unsupported objectives; +2. retain V75+RELATED composition on supported rows outside the prior region; +3. use the full V75+RELATED+objective-prior stack only inside the fixed V138-derived region; +4. use no target labels at inference; +5. beat full V135 on cross-fitted session-held-out predictions; +6. beat a matched-coverage random prior-activation control. + +## Frozen operator +For each outer fold, define thresholds from outer-training runtime fields only: +- `support_log <= training q80` +- `prior_disp > training q20` + +Supported outer rows satisfying both receive the full V135 stack. Other supported rows receive the composition-only V75+RELATED stack. Unsupported rows receive exact V97. + +No threshold search, no alternative conjunction, no tree/router, no post-result tuning. + +## Control +Within each untouched outer fold, randomly permute the binary prior-activation mask across supported rows, preserving the exact number of prior-enabled rows. Apply full V135 on the shuffled mask and composition-only elsewhere. Fixed seed 20260823. + +## Action table +PROMOTE_COMPONENT_LAW if: +- incremental gain vs full V135 >= 0.0005; +- advantage vs matched random control >= 0.0005; +- >=3/4 folds beat V135; +- all folds non-regress vs V97. + +RETAIN_COMPONENT_SIGNAL if incremental gain > 0, control advantage >= 0.0002, and >=3/4 folds beat V135. + +Otherwise CLOSE_COMPONENT_APPLICABILITY_HYPOTHESIS. + +## Epistemic status +V139 is a second-generation mechanism test induced by V138 on the same 35,072-row corpus. Even a pass is not final untouched admission; it must subsequently survive competition-shaped/runtime verification. + +## Retention +The run saves OOF predictions for V97, composition-only, full V135, V139, and matched random control so future tests do not need to rebuild the full transcript matrices merely to analyze this component law. diff --git a/competitions/trace_the_ace/v139_component_applicability.py b/competitions/trace_the_ace/v139_component_applicability.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..1a51d799 --- /dev/null +++ b/competitions/trace_the_ace/v139_component_applicability.py @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""V139: component-specific applicability induced by V138. + +The whole-V135 two-literal gate was not admitted, but all V138 meta-folds selected +support_log<=q80 AND prior_disp>q20. V139 asks whether that geometry belongs only +to the objective-prior component. Composition-only is retained everywhere else. +""" +from __future__ import annotations +import argparse,json,time +from pathlib import Path +import numpy as np +from sklearn.model_selection import GroupKFold +from sklearn.metrics import log_loss + +from v75_canonical_trajectory import load_training,SEED +from v71_mastery_events import load_transcript +from v85_evidence_state import build_v75 +from v94_related_control import segmented_control,build_control +from v135_nested_supported_stack import components,feats,fit_stack,EPS,logit + +RNG_SEED=20260823 +SUPPORT_Q=.80 +DISP_Q=.20 + +def main(a): + t0=time.time(); f=load_training(a.features,a.labels).reset_index(drop=True) + y=f.target.to_numpy(int); support=f.learning_objective.astype(str).to_numpy(); sessions=f.session_id.astype(str).to_numpy() + obj=(f.learning_objective_id if 'learning_objective_id' in f else f.learning_objective).astype(str).to_numpy() + print('ROWS',len(f),'SESSIONS',len(np.unique(sessions)),'OBJECTIVES',len(np.unique(obj)),flush=True) + cache={}; us=np.unique(sessions) + for j,sid in enumerate(us,1): + cache[str(sid)]=load_transcript(a.transcripts/f'{sid}.csv') + if j%2500==0: print('TRANSCRIPTS',j,'/',len(us),'elapsed',round(time.time()-t0,1),flush=True) + X75=build_v75(f,cache); print('V75',X75.shape,X75.nnz,'elapsed',round(time.time()-t0,1),flush=True) + rt=[];rz=[] + for i,r in f.iterrows(): + text,z=segmented_control(cache[str(r.session_id)],str(r.learning_objective),'related'); rt.append(text);rz.append(z) + if (i+1)%5000==0: print('RELATED_ROWS',i+1,'elapsed',round(time.time()-t0,1),flush=True) + Xr=build_control(rt,rz); print('RELATED',Xr.shape,Xr.nnz,'elapsed',round(time.time()-t0,1),flush=True) + + n=len(y); P0=np.zeros(n);P1=np.zeros(n);P2=np.zeros(n);PG=np.zeros(n);PC=np.zeros(n);GM=np.zeros(n,bool) + folds=[]; rng=np.random.default_rng(RNG_SEED) + outer=list(GroupKFold(4).split(np.zeros(n),y,sessions)) + for k,(tr,va) in enumerate(outer,1): + q0,o75,orr,opp,oc,oseen=components(X75,Xr,y,tr,va,support) + ig=sessions[tr]; inner=list(GroupKFold(3).split(np.zeros(len(tr)),y[tr],ig)) + ip75=np.zeros(len(tr));ipr=np.zeros(len(tr));ipp=np.zeros(len(tr));ic=np.zeros(len(tr));iseen=np.zeros(len(tr),bool) + for ltr,lva in inner: + atr=tr[ltr];ava=tr[lva] + _,a75,ar,ap,ac,aseen=components(X75,Xr,y,atr,ava,support) + ip75[lva]=a75;ipr[lva]=ar;ipp[lva]=ap;ic[lva]=ac;iseen[lva]=aseen + fitmask=iseen + m1=fit_stack(feats(ip75[fitmask],ipr[fitmask],ipp[fitmask],ic[fitmask],False),y[tr][fitmask]) + m2=fit_stack(feats(ip75[fitmask],ipr[fitmask],ipp[fitmask],ic[fitmask],True),y[tr][fitmask]) + q1=q0.copy();q2=q0.copy() + if oseen.any(): + q1[oseen]=np.clip(m1.predict_proba(feats(o75[oseen],orr[oseen],opp[oseen],oc[oseen],False))[:,1],EPS,1-EPS) + q2[oseen]=np.clip(m2.predict_proba(feats(o75[oseen],orr[oseen],opp[oseen],oc[oseen],True))[:,1],EPS,1-EPS) + + # Frozen V138-derived component region. Thresholds come only from outer-training inner-OOF fields. + train_support=np.log1p(ic[fitmask]) + train_disp=np.abs(logit(ipp[fitmask])-logit(ip75[fitmask])) + sth=float(np.quantile(train_support,SUPPORT_Q)); dth=float(np.quantile(train_disp,DISP_Q)) + outer_support=np.log1p(oc); outer_disp=np.abs(logit(opp)-logit(o75)) + gm=oseen & (outer_support<=sth) & (outer_disp>dth) + qg=q1.copy(); qg[gm]=q2[gm] + + # Matched-coverage random prior activation among supported rows. + sup_idx=np.flatnonzero(oseen); n_on=int(gm.sum()); cm=np.zeros(len(va),bool) + if n_on>0: + chosen=rng.choice(sup_idx,size=n_on,replace=False); cm[chosen]=True + qc=q1.copy(); qc[cm]=q2[cm] + + P0[va]=q0;P1[va]=q1;P2[va]=q2;PG[va]=qg;PC[va]=qc;GM[va]=gm + fr={'fold':k,'rows':int(len(va)),'supported_fraction':float(oseen.mean()),'prior_coverage':float(gm.mean()), + 'support_q80_threshold':sth,'prior_disp_q20_threshold':dth, + 'v97_ll':float(log_loss(y[va],q0)),'composition_ll':float(log_loss(y[va],q1)), + 'full_v135_ll':float(log_loss(y[va],q2)),'component_ll':float(log_loss(y[va],qg)), + 'random_control_ll':float(log_loss(y[va],qc))} + folds.append(fr);print('FOLD',json.dumps(fr),flush=True) + + l0=float(log_loss(y,P0));l1=float(log_loss(y,P1));l2=float(log_loss(y,P2));lg=float(log_loss(y,PG));lc=float(log_loss(y,PC)) + inc=l2-lg; causal=lc-lg; all_nonreg=all(r['component_ll']<=r['v97_ll']+1e-12 for r in folds); beats=sum(r['component_ll']=.0005 and causal>=.0005 and beats>=3 and all_nonreg: + verdict='PROMOTE_COMPONENT_LAW'; next_action='competition_shaped_runtime_verification' + elif inc>0 and causal>=.0002 and beats>=3: + verdict='RETAIN_COMPONENT_SIGNAL'; next_action='attack_then_untouched_verification' + else: + verdict='CLOSE_COMPONENT_APPLICABILITY_HYPOTHESIS'; next_action='zoom_out_beyond_current_composition_applicability' + out={'protocol':'V139_COMPONENT_APPLICABILITY','rows':int(n), + 'controller':{'push':'full_v135','residual':'V138 stable support x prior-displacement geometry but whole-operator gate unadmitted', + 'diagnosis':{'primary':'component_applicability','secondary':'composition_representation'}, + 'rival':'V138 interaction is incidental and matched random prior activation performs as well', + 'K_effect':['retain_v97_unsupported','retain_composition_outside_prior_region','label_free_inference','beat_full_v135','beat_matched_random_control'], + 'operator':'composition-only on supported rows except full V135 when support_log<=train_q80 and prior_disp>train_q20', + 'control':'same-count random prior activation','epistemic_status':'second_generation_mechanism_test_not_final_admission'}, + 'v97_ll':l0,'composition_ll':l1,'composition_gain':l0-l1,'full_v135_ll':l2,'full_v135_gain':l0-l2, + 'component_ll':lg,'component_gain':l0-lg,'incremental_vs_v135':inc,'random_control_ll':lc,'gain_vs_random_control':causal, + 'prior_coverage':float(GM.mean()),'folds_beating_v135':int(beats),'all_fold_nonregression':bool(all_nonreg),'folds':folds, + 'decision':{'verdict':verdict,'next_action':next_action},'elapsed_seconds':float(time.time()-t0)} + Path(a.out).write_text(json.dumps(out,indent=2));print('FINAL',json.dumps(out,indent=2),flush=True) + np.savez_compressed(a.oof,y=y,sessions=sessions,objectives=obj,support=support,p_v97=P0,p_comp=P1,p_v135=P2,p_component=PG,p_random=PC,prior_gate=GM) + +if __name__=='__main__': + p=argparse.ArgumentParser();p.add_argument('--features',type=Path,required=True);p.add_argument('--labels',type=Path,required=True);p.add_argument('--transcripts',type=Path,required=True);p.add_argument('--out',type=Path,default=Path('v139_component_applicability.json'));p.add_argument('--oof',type=Path,default=Path('v139_component_oof.npz'));main(p.parse_args())