diff --git a/ledger/README.md b/ledger/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7bba850 --- /dev/null +++ b/ledger/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +# PolicyEngine Ledger + +PolicyEngine Ledger records public source facts. It does not record predictions, +forecast distributions, agent traces, or forecast scores. + +`official_observations.jsonl` contains source-backed `AggregateFact` rows for +official observations that downstream systems can use as resolution facts. Each +row should keep `source_record_id` stable and source-specific, because downstream +prediction systems resolve against that ID. diff --git a/ledger/official_observations.jsonl b/ledger/official_observations.jsonl new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bbb352b --- /dev/null +++ b/ledger/official_observations.jsonl @@ -0,0 +1,104 @@ +{"value":172,"observed_at":"2026-06-05","period":{"type":"month","value":"2026-05"},"geography":{"level":"country","id":"0100000US","vintage":"current","name":"United States"},"entity":{"name":"person","role":"nonfarm_payroll_employee"},"measure":{"concept":"bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change","unit":"thousands","source_concept":"bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"bls","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_06052026.htm","concept_evidence_notes":"BLS first reported total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May 2026."},"aggregation":{"method":"sum"},"source":{"source_name":"bls","source_table":"Employment Situation, May 2026","source_file":"empsit_06052026.htm","url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_06052026.htm","vintage":"may_2026_first_print","extracted_at":"2026-06-08","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher news release","method_notes":"First-print May 2026 Employment Situation release."},"filters":{"seasonal_adjustment":"seasonally_adjusted"},"domain":"total_nonfarm_payroll_employment","label":"United States May 2026 sum BLS CES total nonfarm payroll change for persons [BLS Employment Situation, May 2026 first print]","source_record_id":"bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.may_2026.first_print","source_cell_keys":["official_release:bls:empsit_06052026:payroll_change"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:bls:empsit_06052026:summary"]} +{"value":4.3,"observed_at":"2026-06-05","period":{"type":"month","value":"2026-05"},"geography":{"level":"country","id":"0100000US","vintage":"current","name":"United States"},"entity":{"name":"person","role":"civilian_labor_force"},"measure":{"concept":"bls.cps.unemployment_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"bls.cps.unemployment_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"bls","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_06052026.htm","concept_evidence_notes":"BLS first reported the May 2026 unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"civilian_labor_force"},"source":{"source_name":"bls","source_table":"Employment Situation, May 2026","source_file":"empsit_06052026.htm","url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_06052026.htm","vintage":"may_2026_first_print","extracted_at":"2026-06-08","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher news release","method_notes":"First-print May 2026 Employment Situation release."},"filters":{"seasonal_adjustment":"seasonally_adjusted","age":"16_plus"},"domain":"civilian_labor_force","label":"United States May 2026 rate BLS CPS unemployment rate for persons [BLS Employment Situation, May 2026 first print]","source_record_id":"bls.cps.unemployment_rate.may_2026.first_print","source_cell_keys":["official_release:bls:empsit_06052026:unemployment_rate"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:bls:empsit_06052026:summary"]} +{"value":0.3,"observed_at":"2026-06-05","period":{"type":"month","value":"2026-05"},"geography":{"level":"country","id":"0100000US","vintage":"current","name":"United States"},"entity":{"name":"person","role":"private_nonfarm_payroll_employee"},"measure":{"concept":"bls.ces.average_hourly_earnings_private_monthly_change","unit":"percent_growth","source_concept":"bls.ces.average_hourly_earnings_private","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"bls","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_06052026.htm","concept_evidence_notes":"BLS first reported average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 0.3 percent in May 2026."},"aggregation":{"method":"mean"},"source":{"source_name":"bls","source_table":"Employment Situation, May 2026","source_file":"empsit_06052026.htm","url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_06052026.htm","vintage":"may_2026_first_print","extracted_at":"2026-06-08","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher news release","method_notes":"First-print May 2026 Employment Situation release."},"filters":{"seasonal_adjustment":"seasonally_adjusted","employee_group":"all_employees_private_nonfarm"},"domain":"private_nonfarm_payroll_employees","label":"United States May 2026 mean BLS CES average hourly earnings private monthly change for persons [BLS Employment Situation, May 2026 first print]","source_record_id":"bls.ces.average_hourly_earnings_private.may_2026.first_print","source_cell_keys":["official_release:bls:empsit_06052026:average_hourly_earnings_mom"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:bls:empsit_06052026:summary"]} +{"value":6.6,"observed_at":"2026-06-05","period":{"type":"month","value":"2026-05"},"geography":{"level":"country","id":"CA","vintage":"current","name":"Canada"},"entity":{"name":"person","role":"labour_force"},"measure":{"concept":"statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"statcan","concept_evidence_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260605/dq260605a-eng.htm","concept_evidence_notes":"Statistics Canada first reported the unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 6.6% in May 2026."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"labour_force"},"source":{"source_name":"statcan","source_table":"Labour Force Survey, May 2026","source_file":"dq260605a-eng.htm","url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260605/dq260605a-eng.htm","vintage":"may_2026_first_print","extracted_at":"2026-06-08","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher Daily release","method_notes":"First-print May 2026 Labour Force Survey Daily release."},"filters":{"seasonal_adjustment":"seasonally_adjusted","age":"15_plus"},"domain":"labour_force","label":"Canada May 2026 rate Statistics Canada LFS unemployment rate for persons [Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, May 2026 first print]","source_record_id":"statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print","source_cell_keys":["official_release:statcan:dq260605a:unemployment_rate"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:statcan:dq260605a:highlights"]} +{"value":88,"observed_at":"2026-06-05","period":{"type":"month","value":"2026-05"},"geography":{"level":"country","id":"CA","vintage":"current","name":"Canada"},"entity":{"name":"person","role":"employed"},"measure":{"concept":"statcan.lfs.employment_change","unit":"thousands","source_concept":"statcan.lfs.employment_change","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"statcan","concept_evidence_url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260605/dq260605a-eng.htm","concept_evidence_notes":"Statistics Canada first reported employment increased by 88,000 in May 2026."},"aggregation":{"method":"sum"},"source":{"source_name":"statcan","source_table":"Labour Force Survey, May 2026","source_file":"dq260605a-eng.htm","url":"https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260605/dq260605a-eng.htm","vintage":"may_2026_first_print","extracted_at":"2026-06-08","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher Daily release","method_notes":"First-print May 2026 Labour Force Survey Daily release."},"filters":{"seasonal_adjustment":"seasonally_adjusted","age":"15_plus"},"domain":"employment","label":"Canada May 2026 sum Statistics Canada LFS employment change for persons [Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, May 2026 first print]","source_record_id":"statcan.lfs.employment_change.canada.may_2026.first_print","source_cell_keys":["official_release:statcan:dq260605a:employment_change"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:statcan:dq260605a:highlights"]} +{"value":10.93,"observed_at":"2025-06-30","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2024},"geography":{"level":"country","id":"0100000US","vintage":"current","name":"United States"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://fns-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-fy24QC-PER.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"FNS reported the FY2024 national SNAP payment error rate was 10.93 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2024","source_file":"snap-fy24QC-PER.pdf","url":"https://fns-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-fy24QC-PER.pdf","vintage":"fy2024_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-10","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher PDF","method_notes":"FY2024 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 30, 2025."},"filters":{"error_component":"total"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"United States FY2024 rate FNS SNAP total payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2024]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2024.official_release","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_fy24_per:total_us"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_fy24_per:united_states"]} +{"value":9.26,"observed_at":"2025-06-30","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2024},"geography":{"level":"country","id":"0100000US","vintage":"current","name":"United States"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.overpayment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.overpayment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://fns-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-fy24QC-PER.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"FNS reported the FY2024 national SNAP overpayment error rate was 9.26 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2024","source_file":"snap-fy24QC-PER.pdf","url":"https://fns-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-fy24QC-PER.pdf","vintage":"fy2024_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-10","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher PDF","method_notes":"FY2024 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 30, 2025."},"filters":{"error_component":"overpayment"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"United States FY2024 rate FNS SNAP overpayment payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2024]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.overpayment_payment_error_rate.us.fy2024.official_release","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_fy24_per:overpayment_us"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_fy24_per:united_states"]} +{"value":1.67,"observed_at":"2025-06-30","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2024},"geography":{"level":"country","id":"0100000US","vintage":"current","name":"United States"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.underpayment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.underpayment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://fns-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-fy24QC-PER.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"FNS reported the FY2024 national SNAP underpayment error rate was 1.67 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2024","source_file":"snap-fy24QC-PER.pdf","url":"https://fns-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-fy24QC-PER.pdf","vintage":"fy2024_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-10","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher PDF","method_notes":"FY2024 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 30, 2025."},"filters":{"error_component":"underpayment"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"United States FY2024 rate FNS SNAP underpayment payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2024]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.underpayment_payment_error_rate.us.fy2024.official_release","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_fy24_per:underpayment_us"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_fy24_per:united_states"]} +{"value":80.21,"observed_at":"2026-06-10","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2024},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US06","vintage":"current","name":"California"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_applicant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/qc/timeliness/apt-fy24","concept_evidence_notes":"FNS reported California processed 80.21 percent of SNAP applications within federal timeliness standards in FY2024."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"initial_applications"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Application Processing Timeliness, FY 2024","source_file":"apt-fy24","url":"https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/qc/timeliness/apt-fy24","vintage":"fy2024_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-10","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher web table","method_notes":"FY2024 application processing timeliness state table."},"filters":{},"domain":"snap_application_processing","label":"California FY2024 rate FNS SNAP application processing timeliness for households [FNS SNAP Application Processing Timeliness FY2024]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.california.fy2024.official_release","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_apt_fy24:california"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_apt_fy24:california"]} +{"value":564563,"observed_at":"2026-06-10","period":{"type":"month","value":"2026-02"},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US06","vintage":"current","name":"California"},"entity":{"name":"person","role":"medicaid_beneficiary"},"measure":{"concept":"cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_renewed_total","unit":"count","source_concept":"Beneficiaries Whose Coverage Was Renewed (Total)","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"cms","concept_evidence_url":"https://data.medicaid.gov/dataset/5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c","concept_evidence_notes":"CMS dataset reports 564,563 California beneficiaries had coverage renewed in the February 2026 reporting period."},"aggregation":{"method":"sum"},"source":{"source_name":"cms","source_table":"State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data","source_file":"state-medicaid-and-chip-eligibility-processing-data.csv","url":"https://data.medicaid.gov/dataset/5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c","vintage":"feb_2026_original_submission","extracted_at":"2026-06-10","extraction_method":"Official dataset value recorded from publisher CSV download","method_notes":"California February 2026 reporting period, original (O) state submission row."},"filters":{"submission":"original"},"domain":"medicaid_eligibility_processing","label":"California February 2026 sum CMS Medicaid PI beneficiaries renewed total for persons [CMS State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data]","source_record_id":"cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_renewed_total.california.feb_2026.original_submission","source_cell_keys":["official_dataset:cms:medicaid_pi:5abea2e0:ca:202602:beneficiaries_renewed_total"],"source_row_keys":["official_dataset:cms:medicaid_pi:5abea2e0:ca:202602:O"]} +{"value":430980,"observed_at":"2026-06-10","period":{"type":"month","value":"2026-02"},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US06","vintage":"current","name":"California"},"entity":{"name":"person","role":"medicaid_beneficiary"},"measure":{"concept":"cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_renewed_ex_parte","unit":"count","source_concept":"Beneficiaries Whose Coverage Was Renewed on an Ex Parte Basis","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"cms","concept_evidence_url":"https://data.medicaid.gov/dataset/5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c","concept_evidence_notes":"CMS dataset reports 430,980 California beneficiaries were renewed on an ex parte basis in the February 2026 reporting period."},"aggregation":{"method":"sum"},"source":{"source_name":"cms","source_table":"State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data","source_file":"state-medicaid-and-chip-eligibility-processing-data.csv","url":"https://data.medicaid.gov/dataset/5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c","vintage":"feb_2026_original_submission","extracted_at":"2026-06-10","extraction_method":"Official dataset value recorded from publisher CSV download","method_notes":"California February 2026 reporting period, original (O) state submission row."},"filters":{"submission":"original"},"domain":"medicaid_eligibility_processing","label":"California February 2026 sum CMS Medicaid PI beneficiaries renewed ex parte for persons [CMS State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data]","source_record_id":"cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_renewed_ex_parte.california.feb_2026.original_submission","source_cell_keys":["official_dataset:cms:medicaid_pi:5abea2e0:ca:202602:beneficiaries_renewed_ex_parte"],"source_row_keys":["official_dataset:cms:medicaid_pi:5abea2e0:ca:202602:O"]} +{"value":213206,"observed_at":"2026-06-10","period":{"type":"month","value":"2026-02"},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US06","vintage":"current","name":"California"},"entity":{"name":"person","role":"medicaid_beneficiary"},"measure":{"concept":"cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_disenrolled_total","unit":"count","source_concept":"Beneficiaries Disenrolled at Renewal (Total)","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"cms","concept_evidence_url":"https://data.medicaid.gov/dataset/5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c","concept_evidence_notes":"CMS dataset reports 213,206 California beneficiaries were disenrolled at renewal in the February 2026 reporting period."},"aggregation":{"method":"sum"},"source":{"source_name":"cms","source_table":"State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data","source_file":"state-medicaid-and-chip-eligibility-processing-data.csv","url":"https://data.medicaid.gov/dataset/5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c","vintage":"feb_2026_original_submission","extracted_at":"2026-06-10","extraction_method":"Official dataset value recorded from publisher CSV download","method_notes":"California February 2026 reporting period, original (O) state submission row."},"filters":{"submission":"original"},"domain":"medicaid_eligibility_processing","label":"California February 2026 sum CMS Medicaid PI beneficiaries disenrolled total for persons [CMS State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data]","source_record_id":"cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_disenrolled_total.california.feb_2026.original_submission","source_cell_keys":["official_dataset:cms:medicaid_pi:5abea2e0:ca:202602:beneficiaries_disenrolled_total"],"source_row_keys":["official_dataset:cms:medicaid_pi:5abea2e0:ca:202602:O"]} +{"value":197693,"observed_at":"2026-06-10","period":{"type":"month","value":"2026-02"},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US06","vintage":"current","name":"California"},"entity":{"name":"person","role":"medicaid_beneficiary"},"measure":{"concept":"cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_disenrolled_procedural","unit":"count","source_concept":"Beneficiaries Disenrolled for Procedural Reasons at Renewal","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"cms","concept_evidence_url":"https://data.medicaid.gov/dataset/5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c","concept_evidence_notes":"CMS dataset reports 197,693 California beneficiaries were disenrolled for procedural reasons at renewal in the February 2026 reporting period."},"aggregation":{"method":"sum"},"source":{"source_name":"cms","source_table":"State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data","source_file":"state-medicaid-and-chip-eligibility-processing-data.csv","url":"https://data.medicaid.gov/dataset/5abea2e0-3f8e-4b49-a50d-d63d5fd9103c","vintage":"feb_2026_original_submission","extracted_at":"2026-06-10","extraction_method":"Official dataset value recorded from publisher CSV download","method_notes":"California February 2026 reporting period, original (O) state submission row."},"filters":{"submission":"original"},"domain":"medicaid_eligibility_processing","label":"California February 2026 sum CMS Medicaid PI beneficiaries disenrolled procedural for persons [CMS State Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility Processing Data]","source_record_id":"cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_disenrolled_procedural.california.feb_2026.original_submission","source_cell_keys":["official_dataset:cms:medicaid_pi:5abea2e0:ca:202602:beneficiaries_disenrolled_procedural"],"source_row_keys":["official_dataset:cms:medicaid_pi:5abea2e0:ca:202602:O"]} +{"value":0.5,"observed_at":"2026-06-10","period":{"type":"month","value":"2026-05"},"geography":{"level":"country","id":"0100000US","vintage":"current","name":"United States"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"cpi_u_all_items"},"measure":{"concept":"bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026","unit":"percent_growth","source_concept":"bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"bls","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_06102026.htm","concept_evidence_notes":"All-items CPI-U +0.5% MoM SA (FRED CPIAUCSL 332.407->333.979 = +0.473%, rounds to 0.5)."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate"},"source":{"source_name":"bls","source_table":"Consumer Price Index, May 2026","source_file":"cpi_06102026.htm","url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_06102026.htm","vintage":"2026-05_first_print","extracted_at":"2026-06-12","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher release; cross-checked against an independent mirror","method_notes":"All-items CPI-U +0.5% MoM SA (FRED CPIAUCSL 332.407->333.979 = +0.473%, rounds to 0.5)."},"domain":"cpi","label":"United States 2026-05 rate bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026 [Consumer Price Index, May 2026, first print]","source_record_id":"bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026.first_print","source_cell_keys":["official_release:bls:2026-05:cpi_u_all_items"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:bls:2026-05:summary"]} +{"value":0.2,"observed_at":"2026-06-10","period":{"type":"month","value":"2026-05"},"geography":{"level":"country","id":"0100000US","vintage":"current","name":"United States"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"cpi_u_less_food_energy"},"measure":{"concept":"bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026","unit":"percent_growth","source_concept":"bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"bls","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_06102026.htm","concept_evidence_notes":"Core CPI +0.2% MoM SA (FRED CPILFESL 335.423->336.121 = +0.208%); recorded point was 0.3."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate"},"source":{"source_name":"bls","source_table":"Consumer Price Index, May 2026","source_file":"cpi_06102026.htm","url":"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_06102026.htm","vintage":"2026-05_first_print","extracted_at":"2026-06-12","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher release; cross-checked against an independent mirror","method_notes":"Core CPI +0.2% MoM SA (FRED CPILFESL 335.423->336.121 = +0.208%); recorded point was 0.3."},"domain":"cpi","label":"United States 2026-05 rate bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026 [Consumer Price Index, May 2026, first print]","source_record_id":"bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026.first_print","source_cell_keys":["official_release:bls:2026-05:cpi_u_less_food_energy"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:bls:2026-05:summary"]} +{"value":2.25,"observed_at":"2026-06-10","period":{"type":"month","value":"2026-06"},"geography":{"level":"country","id":"CA","vintage":"current","name":"Canada"},"entity":{"name":"government","role":"overnight_target"},"measure":{"concept":"bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026","unit":"percent","source_concept":"bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"bank_of_canada","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/06/fad-press-release-2026-06-10/","concept_evidence_notes":"BoC held overnight rate target at 2.25% (5th consecutive hold); matched recorded point."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate"},"source":{"source_name":"bank_of_canada","source_table":"Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, June 2026","source_file":"Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, June 2026","url":"https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/06/fad-press-release-2026-06-10/","vintage":"2026-06-10_first_print","extracted_at":"2026-06-12","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher release; cross-checked against an independent mirror","method_notes":"BoC held overnight rate target at 2.25% (5th consecutive hold); matched recorded point."},"domain":"overnight_rate","label":"Canada 2026-06-10 rate bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026 [Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, June 2026, first print]","source_record_id":"bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026","source_cell_keys":["official_release:bank_of_canada:2026-06-10:overnight_target"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:bank_of_canada:2026-06-10:summary"],"filters":{"decision_date":"2026-06-10"}} +{"value": 292.6, "observed_at": "2026-06-10", "period": {"type": "month", "value": "2026-05"}, "geography": {"level": "country", "id": "0100000US", "vintage": "current", "name": "United 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+{"value":16.0,"observed_at":"2026-06-24","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2025},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US10","vintage":"current","name":"Delaware"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"USDA reported the FY2025 Delaware SNAP payment error rate was 16.00 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 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2026."},"filters":{"error_component":"total"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"District of Columbia FY2025 rate FNS SNAP total payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2025]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.dc.fy2025","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:total_dc"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:district_of_columbia"]} +{"value":12.97,"observed_at":"2026-06-24","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2025},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US12","vintage":"current","name":"Florida"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"USDA reported the FY2025 Florida SNAP payment error rate was 12.97 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2025","source_file":"snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","vintage":"fy2025_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-24","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher PDF","method_notes":"FY2025 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 24, 2026."},"filters":{"error_component":"total"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"Florida FY2025 rate FNS SNAP total payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2025]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.fl.fy2025","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:total_fl"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:florida"]} 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+{"value":9.34,"observed_at":"2026-06-24","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2025},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US48","vintage":"current","name":"Texas"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"USDA reported the FY2025 Texas SNAP payment error rate was 9.34 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2025","source_file":"snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","vintage":"fy2025_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-24","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher PDF","method_notes":"FY2025 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 24, 2026."},"filters":{"error_component":"total"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"Texas FY2025 rate FNS SNAP total payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2025]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.tx.fy2025","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:total_tx"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:texas"]} +{"value":5.54,"observed_at":"2026-06-24","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2025},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US49","vintage":"current","name":"Utah"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"USDA reported the FY2025 Utah SNAP payment error rate was 5.54 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2025","source_file":"snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","vintage":"fy2025_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-24","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher PDF","method_notes":"FY2025 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 24, 2026."},"filters":{"error_component":"total"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"Utah FY2025 rate FNS SNAP total payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2025]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.ut.fy2025","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:total_ut"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:utah"]} +{"value":5.38,"observed_at":"2026-06-24","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2025},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US50","vintage":"current","name":"Vermont"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"USDA reported the FY2025 Vermont SNAP payment error rate was 5.38 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2025","source_file":"snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","vintage":"fy2025_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-24","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher PDF","method_notes":"FY2025 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 24, 2026."},"filters":{"error_component":"total"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"Vermont FY2025 rate FNS SNAP total payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2025]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vt.fy2025","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:total_vt"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:vermont"]} +{"value":5.36,"observed_at":"2026-06-24","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2025},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US78","vintage":"current","name":"Virgin Islands"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"USDA reported the FY2025 Virgin Islands SNAP payment error rate was 5.36 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2025","source_file":"snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","vintage":"fy2025_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-24","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher PDF","method_notes":"FY2025 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 24, 2026."},"filters":{"error_component":"total"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"Virgin Islands FY2025 rate FNS SNAP total payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2025]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.vi.fy2025","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:total_vi"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:virgin_islands"]} +{"value":12.32,"observed_at":"2026-06-24","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2025},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US51","vintage":"current","name":"Virginia"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"USDA reported the FY2025 Virginia SNAP payment error rate was 12.32 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2025","source_file":"snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","vintage":"fy2025_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-24","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher PDF","method_notes":"FY2025 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 24, 2026."},"filters":{"error_component":"total"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"Virginia FY2025 rate FNS SNAP total payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2025]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.va.fy2025","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:total_va"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:virginia"]} +{"value":6.98,"observed_at":"2026-06-24","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2025},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US53","vintage":"current","name":"Washington"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"USDA reported the FY2025 Washington SNAP payment error rate was 6.98 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2025","source_file":"snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","vintage":"fy2025_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-24","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher PDF","method_notes":"FY2025 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 24, 2026."},"filters":{"error_component":"total"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"Washington FY2025 rate FNS SNAP total payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2025]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wa.fy2025","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:total_wa"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:washington"]} +{"value":6.69,"observed_at":"2026-06-24","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2025},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US54","vintage":"current","name":"West Virginia"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"USDA reported the FY2025 West Virginia SNAP payment error rate was 6.69 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2025","source_file":"snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","vintage":"fy2025_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-24","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher PDF","method_notes":"FY2025 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 24, 2026."},"filters":{"error_component":"total"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"West Virginia FY2025 rate FNS SNAP total payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2025]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wv.fy2025","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:total_wv"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:west_virginia"]} +{"value":5.72,"observed_at":"2026-06-24","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2025},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US55","vintage":"current","name":"Wisconsin"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"USDA reported the FY2025 Wisconsin SNAP payment error rate was 5.72 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2025","source_file":"snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","vintage":"fy2025_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-24","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher PDF","method_notes":"FY2025 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 24, 2026."},"filters":{"error_component":"total"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"Wisconsin FY2025 rate FNS SNAP total payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2025]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wi.fy2025","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:total_wi"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:wisconsin"]} +{"value":3.96,"observed_at":"2026-06-24","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2025},"geography":{"level":"state","id":"0400000US56","vintage":"current","name":"Wyoming"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"USDA reported the FY2025 Wyoming SNAP payment error rate was 3.96 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2025","source_file":"snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","vintage":"fy2025_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-24","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher PDF","method_notes":"FY2025 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 24, 2026."},"filters":{"error_component":"total"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"Wyoming FY2025 rate FNS SNAP total payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2025]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.wy.fy2025","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:total_wy"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:wyoming"]} +{"value":10.62,"observed_at":"2026-06-24","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2025},"geography":{"level":"country","id":"0100000US","vintage":"current","name":"United States"},"entity":{"name":"household","role":"snap_participant"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"USDA reported the FY2025 United States SNAP payment error rate was 10.62 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_benefit_dollars"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2025","source_file":"snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","vintage":"fy2025_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-24","extraction_method":"Official release value recorded from publisher PDF","method_notes":"FY2025 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 24, 2026."},"filters":{"error_component":"total"},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"United States FY2025 rate FNS SNAP total payment error for households [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2025]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2025","source_cell_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:total_us"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:united_states"]} +{"value":81.1,"observed_at":"2026-06-24","period":{"type":"fiscal_year","value":2025},"geography":{"level":"country","id":"0100000US","vintage":"current","name":"United States"},"entity":{"name":"government","role":"snap_administering_jurisdiction"},"measure":{"concept":"fns.snap.share_jurisdictions_at_or_above_6pct","unit":"percent","source_concept":"fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate","concept_relation":"source_label","concept_authority":"fns","concept_evidence_url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","concept_evidence_notes":"USDA reported FY2025 SNAP payment error rates for 53 jurisdictions; 43 were at or above 6.0 percent."},"aggregation":{"method":"rate","denominator":"snap_administering_jurisdictions"},"source":{"source_name":"fns","source_table":"SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2025","source_file":"snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","url":"https://www.fna.usda.gov/sites/default/files/resource-files/snap-qcfy25-per.pdf","vintage":"fy2025_official_release","extracted_at":"2026-06-24","extraction_method":"Share computed from official release table rows","method_notes":"Computed as 43 jurisdictions with total payment error rates at or above 6.0 percent divided by 53 jurisdictions in the FY2025 SNAP QC payment error rate release, dated June 24, 2026."},"filters":{"threshold_percent":6.0,"jurisdictions_at_or_above":43,"jurisdictions_total":53},"domain":"snap_payment_accuracy","label":"United States FY2025 rate FNS SNAP jurisdictions at or above 6 percent payment error threshold [FNS SNAP Payment Error Rates FY2025]","source_record_id":"fns.snap.share_jurisdictions_at_or_above_6pct.fy2025","source_cell_keys":["derived:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:share_jurisdictions_at_or_above_6pct"],"source_row_keys":["official_release:fns:snap_qcfy25_per:all_jurisdictions"]} diff --git a/tests/test_policyengine_ledger.py b/tests/test_policyengine_ledger.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..089ec22 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/test_policyengine_ledger.py @@ -0,0 +1,146 @@ +"""Tests for checked-in PolicyEngine Ledger observation facts.""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +import re +from pathlib import Path + +from arch.core import ( + AggregateFact, + Aggregation, + EntityDimension, + GeographyDimension, + Measure, + PeriodDimension, + SourceProvenance, + validate_facts, +) + + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +LEDGER_PATH = ROOT / "ledger" / "official_observations.jsonl" + +EXPECTED_SOURCE_RECORD_IDS = { + "bank_of_canada.overnight_rate.after_june_2026", + "bls.ces.total_nonfarm_payroll_change.may_2026.first_print", + "bls.ces.average_hourly_earnings_private.may_2026.first_print", + "bls.cpi.u.core_mom.may_2026.first_print", + "bls.cpi.u.headline_mom.may_2026.first_print", + "bls.cps.unemployment_rate.may_2026.first_print", + "bls.import_price_index.all_imports_mom.may_2026.first_print", + "bls.ppi.final_demand_monthly_change.may_2026.first_print", + "boe.bank_rate.2026-06-18", + "boe.bank_rate.after_mpc_june_2026.first_print", + "boj.policy_rate_guideline.after_june_2026", + "census.housing_starts.saar.may_2026.first_print", + "census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance", + "census.mtis.total_business_inventories_level.april_2026.first_print", + "cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_renewed_total.california.feb_2026.original_submission", + "cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_renewed_ex_parte.california.feb_2026.original_submission", + "cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_disenrolled_total.california.feb_2026.original_submission", + "cms.medicaid_pi.beneficiaries_disenrolled_procedural.california.feb_2026.original_submission", + "dol.eta.initial_claims.sa.week_ending_2026_06_06", + "ecb.deposit_facility_rate.after_june_2026", + "estat.jp.cpi.core_exfreshfood.yoy.2026-05", + "eurostat.hicp.all_items_annual_rate.euro_area.may_2026.final_first_print", + "eurostat.industrial_production.euro_area.april_2026.first_print", + "fed.g17.capacity_utilization.total_industry.may_2026.first_print", + "fed.g17.industrial_production.total_index_mom.may_2026.first_print", + "fns.snap.application_processing_timeliness.california.fy2024.official_release", + "fns.snap.overpayment_payment_error_rate.us.fy2024.official_release", + "fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2024.official_release", + "fns.snap.underpayment_payment_error_rate.us.fy2024.official_release", + "ons.cpi.annual_rate.may_2026.first_print", + "ons.cpih.annual_rate.2026-05", + "ons.gdp.monthly_growth.april_2026.first_print", + "ons.hmrc.paye_payrolled_employees.may_2026.first_print", + "ons.labour.unemployment_rate.february_to_april_2026.first_print", + "ons.pusf.j5ii.public_sector_net_borrowing_ex_banks.may_2026.first_print", + "ons.retail_sales.volume_mom.may_2026.first_print", + "rba.cash_rate_target.after_june_2026", + "statcan.building_permits.total_value_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print", + "statcan.employment_insurance.regular_beneficiaries.canada.april_2026.first_print", + "statcan.lfs.employment_change.canada.may_2026.first_print", + "statcan.lfs.unemployment_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print", + "statcan.retail_trade.sales_mom.canada.april_2026.first_print", + "statcan.wholesale_trade.sales_mom_exclusions.canada.april_2026.first_print", + "statjp.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.japan.may_2026.first_print", + "treasury.mts.monthly_deficit.may_2026.first_print", + "us.census.housing_starts.total_saar.2026-05", + "us.dol.initial_claims.sa.week_2026-06-13", + "us.fed.fomc.target_range_upper.2026-06", + "us.frb.industrial_production.total.mom_sa.2026-05", +} + + +def _read_ledger_facts() -> list[dict]: + return [ + json.loads(line) + for line in LEDGER_PATH.read_text(encoding="utf-8").splitlines() + if line.strip() + ] + + +def _to_aggregate_fact(row: dict) -> AggregateFact: + return AggregateFact( + value=row["value"], + period=PeriodDimension(**row["period"]), + geography=GeographyDimension(**row["geography"]), + entity=EntityDimension(**row["entity"]), + measure=Measure(**row["measure"]), + aggregation=Aggregation(**row["aggregation"]), + source=SourceProvenance(**row["source"]), + filters=row.get("filters", {}), + domain=row.get("domain", "all"), + label=row.get("label"), + source_record_id=row.get("source_record_id"), + source_cell_keys=tuple(row.get("source_cell_keys", ())), + source_row_keys=tuple(row.get("source_row_keys", ())), + ) + + +def test_official_observation_ledger_has_expected_rows(): + rows = _read_ledger_facts() + + assert {row["source_record_id"] for row in rows} == EXPECTED_SOURCE_RECORD_IDS + assert len(rows) == len(EXPECTED_SOURCE_RECORD_IDS) + + +def test_official_observation_ledger_contains_facts_not_predictions(): + rows = _read_ledger_facts() + + for row in rows: + assert "prediction" not in json.dumps(row).lower() + assert "forecast" not in json.dumps(row).lower() + assert row["source_record_id"] + assert re.fullmatch(r"\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}", row["observed_at"]) + assert row["source"]["url"].startswith("https://") + assert row["source"]["vintage"] + + +def test_official_observations_validate_as_aggregate_facts(): + facts = [_to_aggregate_fact(row) for row in _read_ledger_facts()] + + report = validate_facts(facts) + + assert report.valid, report.to_dict() + assert report.counts["by_source"] == { + "bank_of_canada": 1, + "bls": 7, + "boe": 2, + "boj": 1, + "census": 4, + "cms": 4, + "dol": 2, + "ecb": 1, + "eurostat": 2, + "fed": 4, + "fns": 4, + "ons": 7, + "rba": 1, + "statcan": 6, + "statjp": 2, + "treasury": 1, + } + assert report.counts["missing_lineage"]["count"] == 0